Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 12.830292 14.492428 16.421765 18.861000 21.913971 25.682505 30.810390
2024-10-06 10.823704 12.829850 15.352317 18.858697 23.789295 30.802238 42.255270
2024-10-13 9.326480 11.355076 14.024503 17.952108 23.900622 33.229589 50.753265
2024-10-20 8.217248 10.186650 12.860120 16.954842 23.505045 34.589763 58.032165
2024-10-27 7.400148 9.302051 11.947263 16.130624 23.130981 35.780300 65.641309
2024-11-03 7.513229 9.699784 12.888212 18.266764 28.162438 48.887602 113.634002
2024-11-10 7.306197 9.605196 13.068970 19.188503 31.283474 59.882696 177.506666
2024-11-17 6.742680 8.927819 12.263044 18.266993 30.494828 61.002940 205.186998
2024-11-24 6.412519 8.575892 11.938845 18.157303 31.390624 67.229664 282.433739
2024-12-01 6.088339 8.207442 11.550312 17.868389 31.816957 72.414096 384.007739
2024-12-08 5.842786 7.943238 11.309058 17.823171 32.803472 80.222856 594.206770
2024-12-15 5.661239 7.766542 11.197823 18.013945 34.427823 91.875730 1167.035069
2024-12-22 5.390224 7.444269 10.834324 17.701785 34.837549 99.940940 2427.508496
2024-12-29 5.190150 7.225050 10.634333 17.706786 36.151229 114.242098 14938.686124
2025-01-05 4.890624 6.824694 10.080091 16.883473 34.876641 113.846073 59591.719794
2025-01-12 4.602477 6.429789 9.512057 15.975673 33.181989 109.992462 249846.701984
2025-01-19 4.356349 6.094318 9.033583 15.223350 31.834194 107.583486 NaN
2025-01-26 4.484514 6.389347 9.726026 17.169370 39.570078 182.846768 NaN
2025-02-02 4.456603 6.416123 9.918961 18.005345 44.165791 260.698725 NaN
2025-02-09 4.242950 6.110399 9.450649 17.169578 42.196452 251.130262 NaN
2025-02-16 4.123298 5.963901 9.284242 17.069948 43.130443 290.695324 NaN
2025-02-23 3.993945 5.794683 9.062905 16.807378 43.342252 322.443344 NaN
2025-03-02 3.895438 5.675628 8.933523 16.766264 44.497764 385.093838 NaN